Hiroo Onoda was an Army intelligence officer who fought in World War 2 and refused to surrender when the war finished in 1945.
He spent 29 years hiding in the Philippines until his former commander had to travel back to relieve him of his duties.
People made many attempts to convince Onoda that the war was well and truly over, but his devotion to the cause and his belief he was being lied to kept him from surrendering.
The first time he heard about the War ending was when it had ended.
In 1945 he saw a leaflet left behind by local islanders that Japan had surrendered.
The note read:
“The war ended on 15 August. Come down from the mountains!”
Onoda distrusted the leaflet and thought it was propaganda the Allies created to trick him.
To him, there was no way the war could be over.
Well, it was.
While I can’t find the words to describe Onoda’s heroic, naïve, or delusional efforts, he showed incredible discipline to a cause he believed to his core.
While I’m in no way relating someone buying a digital currency to a war hero, Bitcoiners, when it comes to their digital tokens, individually express this tribal mindset.
Over 48 million people own Bitcoin backed up by computers worldwide.
Shoot me down if you like (excuse the pun), but I believe Bitcoin will never go to Zero.
Even if you wanted to, you couldn’t stop it.
It’s like convincing 48 million Onodas to come down from the mountain.
It’s never going to happen. And if it does, you better show me a better alternative.
Bitcoin Is a Social Construct and a Made-Up Source of Value, Just Like Onoda’s Loyalty.
There are many examples of social constructs humans have created that have value.
The most successful in human history is Gold and then money.
Gold’s value is ultimately a social construction. It’s valuable because we all agree it has been and will be in the future.
Gold’s appealing and metallic qualities, scarcity, and difficulty extracting from the ground have only added to a perception of value.
Bitcoin solves most of Gold’s issues in an increasingly digitally immersive world.
- Bitcoin is highly portable.
- Requires no storage fees
- Is durable
- Inclusive of everyone around the world
- It can’t be replicated and copied.
- It’s also better for the environment than Gold mining
- The one thing people need to pay attention to is that Bitcoin’s greatest strength is its network adoption.
Forget about the technology, which is significant. All new technologies are.
I get comments calling Bitcoin the AOL of blockchain, but I ignore them.
Because once the technology has its network adoption, which is the hardest thing to create, it becomes tough to dethrone.
Almost impossible.
It’s why the top Social media apps have very little competition.
Twitter has been the Yahoo of social media apps for years. Still, no one cares because the network of people using the app has become the social media giant’s most significant supporter.
Bitcoin Is a Network of People That Don’t Surrender.
Tyler Winklevoss and his brother Cameron are one of the world’s largest Bitcoin holders, with a reported 70,000 Bitcoin. They also know something about network effects with Social Networks and Cryptocurrency.
Tyler Winklevoss:
“We were used to social networks but realised Bitcoin was a money network; you could for the first time send value on the internet like an email”
“When you realise that money is the greatest social network of all — and Bitcoin is the first internet money, it’s the greatest social network of all.”
Tyler says that he tried to kill off the idea of Bitcoin, but he struggled to explain why it doesn’t work long-term.
Bitcoin Is a Network of Ptreaton’t Surrender.
Tyler Winklevoss and his brother Cameron are one of the world’s largest Bitcoin holders, with a reported 70,000 Bitcoin. They also know a thing or two about network effects with Social Networks and Cryptocurrency.
Tyler Winklevoss
“We were used to social networks but realised Bitcoin was a money network; you could for the first time send value on the internet like an email”
“When you realise that money is the greatest social network of all — and Bitcoin is the first internet money, it’s the greatest social network of all.”
Tyler says that he tried to kill off the idea of Bitcoin, but he struggled to explain why it doesn’t work long-term.
He also says that people are treating Bitcoin with the same cynical lens as they did when they were looking at the value proposition of social media companies.
They weren’t identifying its value correctly.
Tyler Winklevoss:
“People had the same concerns about social media platforms as with Bitcoin. You should look at Bitcoin almost how you would value Facebook in its early inception.”
“Google took a run at social media, It was called Buzz, and it fell flat on its face.
Social Media platforms not only require network effects, but the users become the most prominent champions of the platform.
They don’t want to leave because nobody wants to upload their pictures ten times on ten different networks.”
He says that when people pick one network, they consciously and subconsciously try and kill all the other ideas because they don’t want the overheads.
They weren’t identifying its value correctly.
Tyler Winklevoss:
“People had the same concerns about social media platforms as with Bitcoin. You should look at Bitcoin almost how you would value Facebook in its early inception.”
“Google took a run at social media, It was called Buzz, and it fell flat on its face.
Social Media platforms not only require network effects, but the users become the most prominent champions of the platform.
They don’t want to leave because nobody wants to upload their pictures ten times on ten different networks.”
He says that when people pick one network, they consciously and subconsciously try and kill all the other ideas because they don’t want the overheads.
More Than 50% of Bitcoin Addresses Are Now at a Loss.
The current state of Bitcoin for investors isn’t pretty at all.
And I can hear the “I told you so” ringing loud in my ears from personal finance expert Dave Ramsay and the ten people who read my Bitcoin blog and commented, “Bitcoin is going to zero”.
I’ll let you have your moment. Here is the data.
From when people first purchased Bitcoin, just over 51%, or 24.6 million addresses of a total of 47.9 million, are below the purchase price of their investment. Yuck.
According to on-chain data, 45% are in profit, all unrealised gains. At the same time, the outstanding 4% are at about breakeven.
According to data from IntoTheBlock, this is normal for a crypto bear market, although the losses in fiat terms are more because the price of Bitcoin is exponentially higher.
Lucas Outumuro, head of research at IntoTheBlock, thinks more pain will come if you look at previous bear cycles.
In January 2019, 55% of Bitcoin addresses were down on investment and bottomed at $3200.
Three months later, a bull run started.
In 2015, 62% of Bitcoin addresses were down on their investment.
Past results are no sign of the future, but they do rhyme. 2015 and 2019 were substantial periods economically.
Right now, the knock-on effect of FTX is sinking the entire market, and there are macroeconomic issues like record inflation, a war in Europe and a cost of living crisis.
Things are entirely different now. They’re worse.
Final Thoughts.
Bitcoin is being trashed to bits in the media but so is the stock market, and so will house prices.
It’s rough out there.
It’s only money. And it isn’t war, so my example of Hiroo Onoda was a bit of a stretch.
You have to admit Onoda’s behaviour is between delusional and being a hero fighting for a cause he believed in, which is why it completely describes Bitcoin maximalism.
His commanders’ orders kept Hiroo Onoda up that mountain for so long and said this to him before the war.
“You are absolutely forbidden to die by your own hand. It may take three years, it may take five, but whatever happens, we’ll come back for you.”
You could almost say that’s where we are with Bitcoin — waiting for the next wave of adoption to come back for us.
It’s undoubtedly not heroic and might be delusional, but it could also be the most incredible opportunity to present itself in our lifetimes.
Time will tell.
This article is for informational purposes only; it should not be considered financial, tax or legal advice. You can consult a financial professional before making any significant financial decisions.
This article is for informational purposes only; it should not be considered financial, tax or legal advice. You can consult a financial professional before making any significant financial decisions.